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Ocean shipping spot rate indexes are still falling. But after months of steep declines, they’re dropping much less rapidly than before. It could be just a temporary plateau before the next leg down. Or it could be something more significant: the first sign of the market bottom, the post-pandemic “new normal.”

Different spot rate indexes publish different numbers, and critics contend that indexes don’t reflect actual rates. But the consensus is that indexes are a good indicator of the general direction of pricing. And the direction spot indexes are headed lately is more sideways than down.

Container freight rates increased dramatically between January 2019 and October 2022. The year 2021 saw an especially steep increase in global freight rates, reaching a record price of nearly 10,400 U.S. dollars in September 2021. In October 2022, the global freight rate index stood at 3,100 U.S. dollars.

Whether spot rates are bottoming or not is important to container shipping stocks — not just liner stocks, but also ship-lessor stocks. (Lessors earn from ship charter rates, which are affected by freight rates.)

During an interview with American Shipper on Oct. 19, Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta said: “Investors don’t want to be involved right now as freight rates are still declining. But the moment we start to see some stability in freight rates, I think buyers are going to be flocking into this sector because of the value these stocks hold.”

This may already be starting to happen. Container shipping stocks are not falling to the extent they were in prior months. “It’s still very early days, but freight rate declines are less aggressive and people are wondering if this is in response to the blank [canceled] sailings we’re seeing and other counter-maneuvers liners are doing to support pricing,” said Nokta. “It seems to be working. But whether it’s the long-term solution or will just last a couple of weeks or months, we’ll see. The jury’s still out.”